Things are better than we think according to the author of Factfulness Hans Rosling.
Experience and history influence our feelings, and our feelings contribute to our conclusions. Thinking about situations being better than we think as it’s applied to real estate work, two areas where we go quickly to experience and history are assessing the coming market conditions, and pricing. If Hans Rosling’s theory plays out in our business, our industry’s perspective of the coming market conditions might be less accurate, in a negative way, and our opinions of value may be a bit low when experience is given more value than facts.
What does the real estate industry tell the public every spring? Buy now because interest rates are going up. Sellers? Sell now because the market’s going to take a dip. It’s easy enough to look at the factual historical data and see if we’re right more than not (I think not).
How diligent are we at scrutinizing the facts, as they relate to appraised valuation, when answering a question of our opinion on value? The outcome of a transaction is affected by the conclusions buyers and sellers reach influenced by our opinions. How costly is it to the parties when one of us offers a value opinion based on what we think rather than what we know to be factual? Learning to make value adjustments, and then applying that exercise before speaking might be worth the effort.